June 9, 2010
If you are a college sports fan, you’ve already heard some talk of major changes occurring to the traditional major conference alignments. Sure you know because every pundit in America has offered an opinion on analysis of what will happen if the rumors become fact.
Let me submit some of the more commonly suggested scenarios:
1) The Nebraska – Missouri Theory
Many onlookers think this one has legs. The Big 10 would invite these two Big 12 members, partly for Missouri’s two large cities and similar academic reputation and partly for Nebraska’s national reputation as a football powerhouse. The Big 12 has apparently asked both schools to pledge allegiance soon. Both schools have remained mum on their thinking.
2) The Texas – Nebraska Theory
This one says that Texas will not stay in the Big 12 if Nebraska bolts and, perhaps, vice versa.
3) The Big 10 Theory
Not sure if this is a theory or a fact. The Big 10 initiated its own network a couple years ago and despite many logistical challenges (such as not being added to some key cable networks), the Big 10 Network can become a cash cow as more and more television sets are added. Expansion into major markets (such as St. Louis or New York City via Rutgers) has its obvious advantages.
4) The Notre Dame Theory
The Irish have long coveted their role as a football independent, given their unique history and their lucrative NBC contract. As a result, they have had little or no interest in the Big 10 before but many believe if they decide a conference affiliation is now in their best interests, the Big 10 might stop the Nebraska-Missouri-Rutgers talk and just add Notre Dame for an even dozen members.
5) The Texas Theory
This is also more fact than theory – the Longhorns are one of the have’s in collegiate athletics with a budget well north of $100 million and marquee programs galore. Some think they could choose between several of the power conferences, assuming they are bored with the bland landscape of the Big 12’s small market members.
6) The Pac-10 Theory
There hadn’t been talk of western expansion, at least not in these parts, until a week or so ago when a blogger wrote there was a plan to raid the Big 12 by snapping up six of its members and breaking the Pac-10 into east and west divisions. Those six would allegedly be Texas, Texas A & M, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Colorado – with its massive Denver market being the carrot. This report is unconfirmed but there’s been a lot of smoke so there may be some real fire somewhere.
7) The Texas Buddy Theory
Another report from the southern plains says that politically Texas, Texas A & M and Texas Tech are a form of Siamese triplets. For tradition sake and probably economic interests, this trio supposedly wants to stay together. Baylor is apparently unhappy about this for obvious reasons.
8) The No Play-off Theory
One of the more intriguing columns we’ve run across came from the keyboard of a Texas-based writer who said all this expansion talk is the result of various conference officials, especially the Big 12 Commissioner, failing to support legislation to bring about a college football play-off. The lack of a lucrative play-off system left some programs in the mood to seek more income.
9) The Big 12 Theory
The Big 12 has a much smaller annual payout ($12 M maximum) to its members than the SEC ($17+M) and Big 10 ($20M). It stands to be the real loser if this big shuffle happens and 50% or more of its membership jumps to perceived greener pastures. It hopes to keep intact by reminding those members with wandering eyes that it was the old Big 8 and current Big 12 that got them where they are today. The most worried of its schools are Kansas, Kansas State and Iowa State – small market institutions that lack great tradition, save the Jayhawks’ fabled basketball heritage.And just where does the Southeastern Conference stand? Darn good question. We recently attended the SEC’s Spring Meetings and there was nothing on the agenda about expansion. Mum’s the word. You can bet the Athletic Directors and Presidents reviewed options with Commissioner Mike Slive but this is a group known to hold its cards extremely close to the vest. (Remember the discussion about the SEC Television Network?)
One of the league’s top reporters is Chris Low from ESPN.com, who wrote that he hears the most expansion chatter about Texas and Virginia Tech. But he admits that this seems to be more conversation than a claim it’s an impending plan.
If and when the first domino falls, the panorama of collegiate athletics could forever be changed. To old-school traditionalists that is potentially discouraging. It is difficult to imagine that a Nebraska fan could get as stoked up to play Northwestern or Michigan State as it does to play Oklahoma or Kansas. And who can think that a Texas – Oregon Pac-10 title game could have the same luster as Longhorns-Huskers? That is why I’ve never bought into the Vanderbilt to the Big 10 or ACC theories – the geography and tradition are simply wrong.
And what about all the other sports? What about travel costs in this tough economy? How do the golf, tennis and soccer teams handle conference play if members are a thousand miles apart?
There will be solutions but one thing is certain; there is probably nobody right now that knows exactly what will happen. Anyone claiming otherwise is exaggerating because those in the most know are not talking, especially in the Southeastern Conference.